An interesting analysis on the power of online activism. On top of the pessimistic approach to the role of Internet activism (well-founded, although I am generally more optimistic), Marc Lynch asks the West whether we are ready to both support and protect Internet political activists in authoritarian countries.
Much of my talk would be familiar to regular readers, and I don’t want to really repeat it here. The very short version: politics come first, and that technology alone can have only a very limited impact in the face of authoritarian states. Where internet activists have had a significant impact in Arab countries, it has usually been tied to distinct political opportunities – such as the Kwuaiti royal transition or elections — or else led by people who were activists first and used technology as a tool. New media did help activists in Egypt, Bahrain and elsewhere to punch well above their weight for a while… but eventually the regimes caught up and the real balance of power showed.
I argued that the real impact of political blogging is still likely to lie in the longer term impact on the indivduals themselves, as they develop new political competencies and expectations and relationships. The impact of the new media technologies will likely be best measured in terms of the emergence of such new kinds of citizens and networks over the next decades, not in terms of institutional political changes over months or years. The rise of young Muslim Brotherhood bloggers through the ranks of the organization may well change that organization over the years. Veterans of the Kefaya movement may over time figure out how to create lasting, popular political movements (with or without using new media).